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How accurate are the statistics derived from Pew Research polls? Follow Us. Include polls from YouGov which interviews respondents via the Web and was among the most accurate pollsters in , and Democrats had a 1. Last month, the GOP was down by 0. In other words, Republicans gained a point over the past month at the same time Obama was gaining.
Comparing the relative pollster ranking between the two lists produced some intriguing results. The vast majority of pollster ranks did not change by more than 10 spots on the table. Another 67 had rank changes between 11 to 40 spots on the two lists; 11 shifted by 41 to spots, and 9 pollsters gained more than spots in the rankings because of the transparency bonus.
Of this latter group, only 2 of the 9 had more than 15 polls recorded in the database. But one wonders if he needs to go this particular route to get there. Other aggregators use less elaborate methods — including straightforward mean scores — and seem to be just as accurate. His methodology statement is about 4, words with 18 footnotes. It reminds me of a lot of the techies I have worked with over the years — the kind of person who will make three left turns to go right.
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Masks are required in all indoor spaces. This time I think Nate may have taken one left turn to many. Not all errors are equal though. Pollsters often tell us that they aim for errors of less than 3 points so I have chosen to use that as my criteria. These are of course individual polls and if we want to identify the best pollster, we really should look at all the polls they published in the last week of the campaigns. The next table shows the number of polls undertaken by each pollster in the last week of each election and the average RMSE across those polls.
The last column is a straight average of the RMSE for each election i. I have not taken into account how many polls were undertaken in each campaign which I feel is fairer as a pollster who did 4 polls in and 1 in would be treated more favourably than a pollster who did 4 in and 1 in The pollsters have been split into two groups; those who polled in all 3 elections and those who polled in only 2 elections such as Survation.
Those who only did 1 election are not shown here but they are included in the overall average in the bottom row. I should point out that some pollsters may have changed their names or been bought out so it is possible that two apparently different pollsters are in fact the same company.
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